With the current economic climate, it isn't surprising to see some doom-and-gloom from non-traditional publishers like Gawker Media's Nick Denton or non-traditional ad networks like BlogAds' Henry Copeland (both of whom are exceptionally clever thinkers.) Rather than waiting for the government bailout train to make it to bloggers and advertisers, the prior collapse in online media spending earlier in the decade shows us that an occasional forest fire is actually good for the trees (the healthy ones, at least.)

On either side of the media equation, the core essentials haven't changed: the desire to exchange attention for revenue (or vice versa) remains, and both publishers and media buyers can adapt to the changes. Two quick tips:

1. Who takes on how much risk is what will change the most: media buyers and their clients will begin to expect publishers to take on more of the risk of their campaigns being successful. CPM deals will give way to CPC deals, CPC deals will give way to cost-per-lead deals, and CPL deals will give way to commissions on sales. This isn't new territory: we've been writing about this sliding scale of risk since 1999. Both sides can benefit by anticipating those changes exploring "performance marketing" hybrids to their traditional RFPs and rate cards -- just remember that reducing your risk as a buyer also means reducing your control over how the publisher presents it.
2. Despite that obvious shift to performance, many publishers will respond to softer demand from buyers by slashing their rates in desperation. That, combined with fewer ads per page competing for the same attention, is a buyer's best scenario. If you're already buying media, you should be able to increase the ROI for any of your clients ... and if you aren't buying media, the climate will ripe for you start experimenting with it. Take the advice of a bear market stock trader and apply it to media buying.

Remember, only brands in pain innovate: think of the pain of the marketplace as a chance to innovate you'll see opportunity where others might see only ruin.

Posted by Brian on November 17, 2008
Filed under Reflection